Both candidates struggle to convince a majority of Americans
Vice President Kamala Harris has managed to close the gap in the polls with the Republican rival Donald Trump since she entered the race in August. As it currently stands Harris has pulled ahead in the national polling average, according to Real Clear Politics, but her lead isn’t decisive. The situation in the US is nothing like the recent UK election, where Labour maintained a huge polling lead throughout the campaign. There’s also a significant chance that the winner of the presidential race fails to take both the Senate and House with them, limiting their ability to enact their agenda.
Prediction and betting markets had moved in Trump’s favour after Biden’s struggles in the first debate, but they have swung back since Biden dropped out and was replaced by Harris. In national polls, Harris now has 49% on average, versus 47% for Trump. Yet according to betting markets, the probability of either winning is now tied. The race has also narrowed in the key battleground (aka ‘swing’) states, i.e. those where currently undecided voters could swing it either way. Trump probably needs to claim more than half of these states (Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Michigan) to take the presidency, given the structure of the electoral college.
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Harris’ current slim lead in the polls is far from conclusive given the tendency of the polls to move as election day approaches, and their typical error. For example, Harris’ lead over Trump is smaller than Hilary Clinton’s was, before losing to him in the 2016 election. In post-WW2 elections, the average state poll has shifted by more than 8 percentage points in the four months before the vote, more than enough to wipe out Trump’s advantage in the battleground states. Biden’s replacement by Harris arguably adds to the possibility of the polls moving (in either direction) this time around, as voters become more familiar with the new candidate. And the polls themselves are far from perfect. Differences of more than 2 percentage points between the final polls and election result are routine.
Finally, there’s the state of the economy, which historically has helped predict vote shares. The Democrats have presided over high inflation, something which usually hurts incumbents. But otherwise, the economic situation broadly favours the party currently in power. Unemployment is low, real incomes have been growing strongly recently, and the stock market is near all-time highs. Simple models (like the academic Ray Fair’s) and far more sophisticated ones (like that maintained by fivethirtyeight.com, which accounts for eleven economic variables and projects each state individually) both suggest that Harris is marginally more trusted on the economy in the presidential race.
Meanwhile, both congressional contests also look too close to call, and there’s no guarantee that they will go the same way as the presidential vote. Nationwide polls of congressional (rather than presidential) voting intentions are a virtual dead heat between the Republicans and the Democrats. Modelling by Race to the White House suggests that the Republicans are favoured to win the Senate by 58.7%, while the Democrats have a 63.3% advantage in the contest for the House. The Senate map arguably favours the Republicans slightly. The Democrats are defending 23 of the 34 seats up for grabs this year (including Democrat-leaning independents) compared to just 11 for the Republicans. Seats in the Senate are currently split evenly, with Vice President Harris’ tiebreaking vote giving the Democrats control. Meanwhile the Republicans currently have a slim majority in the House (where all seats are contested every two years).