Knowledge and Insight - Economy

There’s a veritable sea of moving parts out there in the global economy, which are keeping investors on edge. The big question is, how will they influence central bankers?

The inflationary shocks caused by the pandemic and war in Ukraine are finally unwinding. But the welcome fading of these shocks doesn’t mean that we’re returning to an environment just like the one before they hit.

The US House of Representatives is struggling to agree on a new Speaker as the US ticks toward a shutdown of government. Strangely, stocks seem more perturbed by strong economic growth.

Big banks are reporting strong profits so far this quarter, but how will the rest of the market fare? And is higher-than-usual inflation making people glum?

This week has seen harrowing atrocities committed by the terrorist group Hamas against Israeli civilians. With so far more than 1,200 people reported to have been killed, this is the most serious cross-border attack Israel has faced in decades.

As the inflationary shocks caused by the pandemic and war in Ukraine finally begin to unwind, we take a look at how the world has changed profoundly, and the opportunities available to us as investors along with it.

Central bankers in the US and UK decided interest rates shouldn’t go higher in September; bond investors disagreed.

In hindsight we underestimated the resilience of the global economy in 2023 and could have advocated taking more risk. But as Rathbones’ Co-CIO Ed Smith explains in this video, global earnings have been falling since January and equity markets have been largely driven by sentiment.

The darkest hour for economic indicators is still approaching; then comes the dawn.

Last week’s round of central bank meetings sent a mainly consistent message. Most held interest rates on hold and suggested rates are now at (or very near) their peaks.

Breakthroughs in AI are exciting for investors, but we also see irrational exuberance.

Will the big central banks making significant interest rate announcements this week follow the ECB’s lead and signal that rates have now peaked? And where might rates settle longer term?