Knowledge and Insight - Economy

A year of rapid-fire interest rate hikes by central banks is yet to be fully felt by the wider economy. Rathbones’ co-chief investment officer Ed Smith explains why that makes us cautious.

Stocks and bonds ended the month – and first quarter – nearing the top ends of the trading ranges in place since late last year. But there’s still much uncertainty about the inflation and growth outlook, particularly if energy prices start rising again.

But reality has yet to set in for equity valuations, especially in the US.

Strong gains for Europe’s banks last week were reversed by Friday’s close. With the fear bug spreading, can we be confident it won’t strike again?

Banks are very powerful, but very fragile. That’s because they are dependent on people and their ability to believe.

When banks fail they do so suddenly and the shock can create panic that spreads trouble to other lenders. That’s why US regulators have stepped in swiftly and unambiguously.

UK central bankers fall into an age-old parenting trap while talking to investors. Also, we look at the differences between official statistics and new ‘real-time’ series.

The war in Ukraine has caused misery in Eastern Europe, upended global trade and sharpened world politics. An era of cheap hydrocarbons is now behind us, and further energy shocks could be on the horizon.

After years of upheaval, huge stimulus and changing habits from work to play, the paths of economic growth and inflation disappear into a fog as thick as a February morning. That’s why we’re still cautious about 2023.

Markets were fanned higher by US monetary policy before getting driven backwards by contradictory economic winds. Uncertainty still reigns supreme.

It’s a manic week ahead, full of monetary policy, earnings and economic insights. Just the right time for a week of strikes to cause bedlam throughout the UK, from schools to railways.

Signs of economic weakness in America have bond investors hoping the US central bank will soon let up on its path of higher interest rates. But they might be a little early.