When terrible events like those in Ukraine happen, we need a map to see our way through. Our analysis helps us map the likely paths economies could take from here.

After a stunning second quarter for economic growth and corporate profits as the world started opening back up again, investor optimism has been tempered. Growth is slowing down in China, the first major economy to regain its lost output, and the global economic recovery seems to be coming off the boil too. Still, we think going from great to merely good will still be good enough.

A guide to human efforts to tackle climate change.

Resurgent growth in the post-COVID world has rekindled talk of the next ‘supercycle’ for industrial commodities. But beneath the headlines, the reality is that this demand is likely to pale in comparison with the driver of the original supercycle.

Investor optimism spread over the second quarter as economies around the world continued to reopen and many aspects of our lives returned to normal. Successful vaccination programmes and stimulus measures across the developed world improved the global outlook.

Why our planet needs them to survive

This year has started off on a positive note, with vaccination programmes making rapid progress and keeping investors optimistic about the prospects for the global economic recovery. While bond markets experienced some volatility during the first quarter, the situation stabilised towards the end of the period.

The healing process

The global economy is reopening for business as the COVID-19 virus recedes, and the groundwork has been laid for a speedy recovery by massive government and central bank stimulus. 

Trade wars continue to cloud the outlook for businesses and consumers. Closer to home, Brexit uncertainty has gone from bad to worse. Our new Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s first few weeks in office have been pretty spectacular.