Knowledge and Insight - Economy

In these videos Rathbones’ co-chief investment officer Ed Smith gives a review of 2023 and discusses our outlook for 2024.

Major new technologies often result in investors over-extrapolating: think of radio stocks in the 1920s, or internet stocks in the late 90s. Or even the dominance of miners and oil producers in 2010 as globalisation — which is technological in a sense — was touted as never-ending.

The fits and starts may not be over, but we’re looking forward to a more sustainable recovery beginning in 2024.

For over a year we have been saying that a US and global recession were likely to start within the next 12 months. Our views warranted a cautious investment approach focused on areas of the market that would be likely to produce steadier returns in an economic downturn.

A Santa rally is in full swing for stocks and bonds, capping off a year of large swells for investors. While returns flow, climate policy is ebbing at COP28 in Dubai.

A bout of runaway inflation could persuade some people that no inflation would be better than any at all. That’s a dangerous path to take.

After a miserable year for living standards, Brits are feeling much better about their lives and their futures. But how much will that move the dial for retail spending and economic growth?

Context is everything when it comes to drawing out the investment implications from the political theatre of the Autumn Statement, and there are three pieces of context particularly worth highlighting this time around.

The government has more cash to work with after better-than-expected GDP growth and higher tax receipts. How will the extra money be used?

Updates on inflation and unemployment arrive this week. Will they give investors more clarity about the paths of interest rates?

Central bankers have sat on their hands for another month, sending the prices of stocks and bonds soaring. While interest rates seem to have peaked, the full effects of previous increases are yet to be felt by households and businesses.

Recent events have shown us that the destruction of human life from geopolitical events can sometimes render their impact on financial markets trivial in comparison. But we have a responsibility to consider the investment implications, prepare for and monitor them.