Risks of higher inflation and slower growth have gone up, and so too have the number and degree of uncertainties around the investment implications.

Ukrainian troops and pro-Russian separatists have traded fire and recriminations in the annexed territory of eastern Ukraine, taking the region to the brink of war.

It’s been a difficult start to the new year for investors, with the global equity benchmark falling into so-called ‘correction’ territory. We can't say for sure when the pain will end, but for the reasons set out in this update, we are confident the correction will be short-lived.

Inflation is high but the pace of economic growth isn’t stagnating.

The final quarter of 2021 proved to be an eventful one for the global economy, with surging inflation and ongoing concerns about supply shortages. Yet markets performed relatively well over the period despite the new Omicron strain adding to the uncertainty. As we look ahead to 2022, economic indicators suggest the post-COVID recovery should continue, and so too should earnings growth.

After a stunning second quarter for economic growth and corporate profits as the world started opening back up again, investor optimism has been tempered. Growth is slowing down in China, the first major economy to regain its lost output, and the global economic recovery seems to be coming off the boil too. Still, we think going from great to merely good will still be good enough.

Resurgent growth in the post-COVID world has rekindled talk of the next ‘supercycle’ for industrial commodities. But beneath the headlines, the reality is that this demand is likely to pale in comparison with the driver of the original supercycle.

Investor optimism spread over the second quarter as economies around the world continued to reopen and many aspects of our lives returned to normal. Successful vaccination programmes and stimulus measures across the developed world improved the global outlook.

This year has started off on a positive note, with vaccination programmes making rapid progress and keeping investors optimistic about the prospects for the global economic recovery. While bond markets experienced some volatility during the first quarter, the situation stabilised towards the end of the period.

Financial markets have been on a rollercoaster over the past year. There was a sharp drop in March as countries locked down and then a swift upswing followed, led by technology shares. Even unloved companies, particularly banks and energy firms, have rebounded lately, thanks to good news about vaccines.

As COVID-19 continues to affect our lives and influence economic activity around the world, there’s lots of uncertainty about what the future holds. Localised outbreaks and lockdowns are possible anywhere until a vaccine is found, with the level of unemployment likely to be the key factor driving the pace of the recovery over the next couple of years.

The healing process