What to do when markets and data seem full of conflicting messages

Following China’s ‘great reopening’, growth is likely to accelerate this year. But we’re sceptical that it will be as successful as many are currently assuming. We expect the road ahead to be bumpy, the same sawtooth pattern that characterised other post-COVID re-openings. Longer term, this cyclical rebound is likely to give way to structurally slower growth.

We’ve certainly had a difficult start to the year, but what is the investment outlook as we look forward to sunnier days ahead? Our latest Investment Insights considers some of the key themes – such as expectations versus reality for US company profits and the search for inflation protection. 

But reality has yet to set in for equity valuations, especially in the US.

Banks are very powerful, but very fragile. That’s because they are dependent on people and their ability to believe.

UK central bankers fall into an age-old parenting trap while talking to investors. Also, we look at the differences between official statistics and new ‘real-time’ series.

Signs of economic weakness in America have bond investors hoping the US central bank will soon let up on its path of higher interest rates. But they might be a little early.