Knowledge and Insight - Markets

Why investing in UK property is not always as safe as houses.

In late October 2023, the UK government backed calls for a global moratorium on deep-sea mining over concerns about its impact on the environment, after dozens of British scientists signed a letter entreating Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to do so.

In these videos Rathbones’ co-chief investment officer Ed Smith gives a review of 2023 and discusses our outlook for 2024.

Major new technologies often result in investors over-extrapolating: think of radio stocks in the 1920s, or internet stocks in the late 90s. Or even the dominance of miners and oil producers in 2010 as globalisation — which is technological in a sense — was touted as never-ending.

The fits and starts may not be over, but we’re looking forward to a more sustainable recovery beginning in 2024.

For over a year we have been saying that a US and global recession were likely to start within the next 12 months. Our views warranted a cautious investment approach focused on areas of the market that would be likely to produce steadier returns in an economic downturn.

Context is everything when it comes to drawing out the investment implications from the political theatre of the Autumn Statement, and there are three pieces of context particularly worth highlighting this time around.

The inflationary shocks caused by the pandemic and war in Ukraine are finally unwinding. But the welcome fading of these shocks doesn’t mean that we’re returning to an environment just like the one before they hit.

This week has seen harrowing atrocities committed by the terrorist group Hamas against Israeli civilians. With so far more than 1,200 people reported to have been killed, this is the most serious cross-border attack Israel has faced in decades.

As the inflationary shocks caused by the pandemic and war in Ukraine finally begin to unwind, we take a look at how the world has changed profoundly, and the opportunities available to us as investors along with it.

In hindsight we underestimated the resilience of the global economy in 2023 and could have advocated taking more risk. But as Rathbones’ Co-CIO Ed Smith explains in this video, global earnings have been falling since January and equity markets have been largely driven by sentiment.

The darkest hour for economic indicators is still approaching; then comes the dawn.