Knowledge and Insight - Markets

With tensions in the Middle East and shifting trade policies stirring global uncertainty, Edward Smith, Co-Chief Investment Officer, and other Rathbones experts explore what this could mean for investors in the second half of 2025.

Markets are braced for some big events on the tariffs, tax and spending fronts that have the capacity to shape economic outcomes well into the future.

Major equity indices hit bear market territory on twists and turns in US tariff policy, before responding to news of a partial climbdown. Meanwhile, the oil price rose and fell and the dollar weakened.

We're mindful of geopolitical tensions. That includes the latest escalation of hostilities in the Middle East and the ticking tariff timebomb. But we see reasons to avoid over-reaction. That puts us broadly in the middle, in our appetite for risk.

Stay informed with our latest 10-minute investment update video, exploring the impact of recent geopolitical tensions, oil market dynamics, and global economic trends on your portfolio.

May wasn't short of market-moving news - much of it about tariffs. In response, investor sentiment on the US economy soured - and then sweetened (somewhat) again.

The world is a very noisy place at the moment, and it’s increasingly designed to be that way. It doesn’t seem to matter where you go or what you do, someone or something is always trying to attract your attention. The proliferation of media outlets only increases the competition, potentially distracting us in the short term from longer-term goals.

Some calm has returned to markets amid a temporary truce in the tariff wars, but the clock is ticking and there is plenty of potential for further volatility. Meanwhile, things are less rosy in bond land. Still, as John notes, there is reason to relax and enjoy the bank holiday weekend.

Markets have responded positively to the truce in US trade wars with most of the rest of the world. While uncertainty remains, the path ahead is a little clearer. What’s changed, and what does it means for you?

Markets have reacted positively to news of US trade deals with the UK and China. But these are still bad deals compared to the previous status quo, so what could propel equity markets higher from here?

April gave investors a rollercoaster ride but the US stock market ended only modestly down and bonds regained their safe-haven status.

Arguably the best investor of all time has decided to retire at the end of the year. Meanwhile, UK interest rates are forecast to fall in a bid to prop up the economy.