Knowledge and Insight - Review of the week

Central bankers in the US and UK decided interest rates shouldn’t go higher in September; bond investors disagreed.

Last week’s round of central bank meetings sent a mainly consistent message. Most held interest rates on hold and suggested rates are now at (or very near) their peaks.

Will the big central banks making significant interest rate announcements this week follow the ECB’s lead and signal that rates have now peaked? And where might rates settle longer term?

Like virtually everything else, the cost of energy is much higher than it used to be. Combined with higher interest rates, it should keep squeezing economic growth in the coming months.

Hopes for a quiet summer were dashed by difficult-to-read economic data, swinging bond yields and holiday dramas.

Rather than a slow fade, the American economy produced a surprise surge. Yet with inflation within touching distance of the 2% target, US interest rates may still peak soon.

Interest rate hikes for the US and Europe are almost certain this week. All major central banks are getting close to calling time on rate increases, but the UK is likely to be the last to do so.

Inflation is falling nicely in the US, will British CPI follow suit this week? Meanwhile, China battles deflation as its economy stutters.

Normally staid bond markets seem highly strung lately, but there are reasons to hope for some loosening up.

Economic data has been confusing for a while. Thankfully, there’s a central bank hiatus just big enough to slip Wimbledon into.

The Bank of England is throwing the kitchen sink at runaway inflation. Will it be enough, and are there some things that are outside its control?

UK inflation may shock gilt markets this week. But if so it’s likely to be a passing phase as price rises continue to cool over the summer.